johngottfredson
Threat Level Midnight
- Location
- Alpine
First of all, I’m not sure I would characterize Americans’ skepticism toward government orders as an inherently bad quality. In this case it may prolong some problems, but taken as a whole it produces a pretty good freedom-based society. Which is a good thing. But more resources need to be put toward public education of what’s really going on and why these mandates are in place. The deep state conspiracies need to stop, and the math, evidence, and science behind these public measures need to be clear to everyone.
Policy makers and government officials also need to do a better job of outlining what the path forward will look like. If we are 18 months from widespread distribution of a vaccine, are we trying to flatten the curve through social distancing...for 18 months? The public health calculus says yes. The economic calculus says hell no. At some point society will have to determine what its tolerance for fatalities really is, weighing all the factors in the balance. My guess is the curve will get flat enough that people will get back to work in 4 weeks. Hospitals will still be overwhelmed, but not as bad as projections, although not as good as it could be. If the margin is 4% mortality rates of no societal action taken, or .9% if extreme measures adopted until vaccine time, we will settle on 2% and say we did our best.
I do not envy the people who have to decide these things.
Policy makers and government officials also need to do a better job of outlining what the path forward will look like. If we are 18 months from widespread distribution of a vaccine, are we trying to flatten the curve through social distancing...for 18 months? The public health calculus says yes. The economic calculus says hell no. At some point society will have to determine what its tolerance for fatalities really is, weighing all the factors in the balance. My guess is the curve will get flat enough that people will get back to work in 4 weeks. Hospitals will still be overwhelmed, but not as bad as projections, although not as good as it could be. If the margin is 4% mortality rates of no societal action taken, or .9% if extreme measures adopted until vaccine time, we will settle on 2% and say we did our best.
I do not envy the people who have to decide these things.