I got a copy of the directive a few hours ago, and it's not particularly specific either. My brew shops...half of the stuff is considered grocery and half of it is considered hardware (True Value actually the largest carrier of home-brew products in the country). I'm hoping I can keep going business as usual, or at the very least do delivery for people.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Kevin B.
- Start date
- Location
- West Bountiful, UT
I really hope you guys that are more optimistic than I am about the economic fallout are right.
No way I can even pretend to know what is going to happen. I don't know. Period.
But I am less optimistic than some of you. I feel like I follow the financial news in the way some of you follow the virus news, and it's giving me a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. I hope I'm just wrong. I certainly might be. My pessimistic opinion is based on a prolonged lockdown. Which, I agree, is needed to have any hope of slowing the virus.
I think most of us in this discussion are still getting a paycheck. Our sacrifice is nothing. So we have to stay home. It's not about having to stay home.
The unemployment numbers are staggering. Unprecedented. Up over 1.5 million for the week. Quadruple the worst week ever before this.
Close to 3 million people out of a job from the virus already. Not given time off without pay - lost their jobs. The jobless rate isn't a curve right now, it's a moon shot, going straight vertical and gaining velocity - look it up.
The equally staggering federal handout isn't enough to keep anyone afloat for more than a few weeks - at a cost of half the national budget. Unemployment benefits can't keep them going very long - a lot of these are service industry people and for a restaurant or bar employee is only about 25% of their previous pay. I feel like there is only a transparent illusion of a safety net for these people.
The handouts are so far beyond sustainable it's not worth talking about. To continue to print dollars at this rate would be begging for a monetary crisis. A monetary crisis would lead to the kind of scenario @Noahfecks mentioned. If the US$ tanks, the whole world goes with it.
Who knows where the jobless rate will be in a few more weeks. Way higher than it is now, that is for sure. So, when I hear about the possibility of remaining on lock down for another month, or six weeks, or even two months, I just don't see a rapid recovery back from that. Not in the real world of people who can't work from home, don't have a job anymore, can't pay their rent or utilities, can't/won't live on the gov't forever.
This damage isn't just going to up an go away and back to normal just because we are all allowed to leave our houses. Lots and lots of jobs aren't going to be there to go back to.
Small/medium business failure is already happening and it's too late to save a lot of them. Again, the giant federal handout just can't stem the tide. Small/medium banks that have loans out to those businesses are going to be asking for bailouts if we're locked down another month. Credit is going to get tighty-tight despite low rates and the hundreds of billions of freshly printed dollars being made available for small business loans.
The fed can start paying banks to take new money (negative interest), and probably will if the lockdown goes for another month. But that hasn't worked out too well for other debtor nations that have been doing it in recent years.
I really fear that if we're talking multiple months of lockdown, I think millions of people will lose their homes. With certainty, many millions are going to lose a large portion of equity due to valuations retreating and tapping equity via refinance. That's loss of wealth. Increase of debt. Not good.
Can't print enough money to do anything about it once the snowball starts to roll and it would be national suicide to try.
And my opinion, it doesn't matter what we little people think. The richest of the rich are going to call the shots. Whatever happens will be based on political calculus and financial considerations (for the very few, not the many). I think the political/financial calculus and public pain and sentiment are going to align for abandoning the lock down strategy and it's going to happen whether science thinks it is a good idea or not.
Ain't I just full of good cheer...
- DAA
No way I can even pretend to know what is going to happen. I don't know. Period.
But I am less optimistic than some of you. I feel like I follow the financial news in the way some of you follow the virus news, and it's giving me a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. I hope I'm just wrong. I certainly might be. My pessimistic opinion is based on a prolonged lockdown. Which, I agree, is needed to have any hope of slowing the virus.
I think most of us in this discussion are still getting a paycheck. Our sacrifice is nothing. So we have to stay home. It's not about having to stay home.
The unemployment numbers are staggering. Unprecedented. Up over 1.5 million for the week. Quadruple the worst week ever before this.
Close to 3 million people out of a job from the virus already. Not given time off without pay - lost their jobs. The jobless rate isn't a curve right now, it's a moon shot, going straight vertical and gaining velocity - look it up.
The equally staggering federal handout isn't enough to keep anyone afloat for more than a few weeks - at a cost of half the national budget. Unemployment benefits can't keep them going very long - a lot of these are service industry people and for a restaurant or bar employee is only about 25% of their previous pay. I feel like there is only a transparent illusion of a safety net for these people.
The handouts are so far beyond sustainable it's not worth talking about. To continue to print dollars at this rate would be begging for a monetary crisis. A monetary crisis would lead to the kind of scenario @Noahfecks mentioned. If the US$ tanks, the whole world goes with it.
Who knows where the jobless rate will be in a few more weeks. Way higher than it is now, that is for sure. So, when I hear about the possibility of remaining on lock down for another month, or six weeks, or even two months, I just don't see a rapid recovery back from that. Not in the real world of people who can't work from home, don't have a job anymore, can't pay their rent or utilities, can't/won't live on the gov't forever.
This damage isn't just going to up an go away and back to normal just because we are all allowed to leave our houses. Lots and lots of jobs aren't going to be there to go back to.
Small/medium business failure is already happening and it's too late to save a lot of them. Again, the giant federal handout just can't stem the tide. Small/medium banks that have loans out to those businesses are going to be asking for bailouts if we're locked down another month. Credit is going to get tighty-tight despite low rates and the hundreds of billions of freshly printed dollars being made available for small business loans.
The fed can start paying banks to take new money (negative interest), and probably will if the lockdown goes for another month. But that hasn't worked out too well for other debtor nations that have been doing it in recent years.
I really fear that if we're talking multiple months of lockdown, I think millions of people will lose their homes. With certainty, many millions are going to lose a large portion of equity due to valuations retreating and tapping equity via refinance. That's loss of wealth. Increase of debt. Not good.
Can't print enough money to do anything about it once the snowball starts to roll and it would be national suicide to try.
And my opinion, it doesn't matter what we little people think. The richest of the rich are going to call the shots. Whatever happens will be based on political calculus and financial considerations (for the very few, not the many). I think the political/financial calculus and public pain and sentiment are going to align for abandoning the lock down strategy and it's going to happen whether science thinks it is a good idea or not.
Ain't I just full of good cheer...
- DAA
Homefryy
Active Member
- Location
- Salt Lake City
This is 100% false. The 500k death prediction was if nothing was done. Now that the UK is locking things down the predicted number of deaths is much lower.
johngottfredson
Threat Level Midnight
- Location
- Alpine
Noahfecks
El Destructo!
- Location
- Glenwoody Springs, CO
Looks like he is walking it back then because yesterday the UK revised it's predictions based on his updated assessment
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer - Washington Examiner
A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Houndoc
Registered User
- Location
- Grantsville
You don't understand it at all (sorry, blunt yes but you clearly are not a virologist either.)
Viruses contain virus RNA (or DNA, depending on the virus)- not human, not animal.
Viruses change and mutate often and at times that makes enough of a change to allow them to change which species that can replicate in (viruses depend on the cells of a host organism for replication.)
In the case of the "novel corona virus" behind COVID-19, it had a mutation that allowed it to make the jump from bats to humans. The reason it is devastating to humans is that since up until now it didn't infect us, no one has any immunity to it until after their first exposure. Immunity from previous exposure is why viruses such as the flu seldom cause massive outbreaks, unless they mutate enough to no longer be recognizable to our immune systems or it is a new strain of flu that has made the jump from other animal to humans.
Once more of us have been exposed and have a severe case and recover or mild case with minimal disease, our immune systems then offer future protection and we are less likely to contract the virus a second time. Once a large enough percent of the population has immunity from either natural exposure or vaccination (once one is available for this virus), its rate of spread will drop considerably.
glockman
I hate Jeep trucks
- Location
- Pleasant Grove
While I think you are right on track Dave, I think the public only has another week, two at the most of patience for this. Many people who are out of work and running out of everything that work provides will just not give a shit what the state says and at that point, let the police try to lock them all up. It just isn't going to happen. Civil unrest I fear is upon us, or close at hand.
Noahfecks
El Destructo!
- Location
- Glenwoody Springs, CO
Yes they are. 24-64k in 2019-2020 season
Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.www.cdc.gov
2018-2019 saw 34k deaths, for comparison
Looks like they have been updated, here was the explanation, my point still stands that no one was crying in the streets for those that passed
Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?
The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information. There is a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy of the burden estimates. To provide timely burden estimates to the public, clinicians, and public health decision-makers, we use preliminary data that may lead to over- or under-estimates of the true burden. However, each season’s estimates will be finalized when data on testing practices and deaths for that season are available.
For the revised 2017-2018 estimates, we included additional information in our estimation regarding influenza testing practices. The surveillance system used to estimate influenza-related hospitalizations, FluSurv-NET, collects data on patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Influenza testing is done at the request of the clinician, but not everyone is tested and influenza tests are not perfectly accurate. Thus, the reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations to FluSurv-NET are likely underestimates of the true number of hospitalizations. To adjust for this, CDC collects data annually from participating FluSurv-NET sites on the amount of influenza testing and the type of test that is used at the site, and this information is used to correct for the possible underestimate of influenza-related hospitalizations. These testing data are often not available for up to two years after the end of an influenza season, and thus the estimates are revised when additional testing data become available. For the original preliminary 2017-2018 burden estimates, data on testing practices during the 2014-2015 season were used to make preliminary estimates because this season had the highest levels of testing among the prior seasons for which data were available and resulted in the most conservative (lowest) estimates of burden. More recent data from the 2016-17 season show that influenza testing has been increasing among most age groups. The current estimates were made using the highest testing rate for each age-group during 2010-11 to 2016-17 and has resulted in some burden estimates being lower than previously estimated.
Additionally, the method we use to estimate influenza-associated deaths relies on additional data from FluSurv-NET and the National Center for Health Statistics (data on cause of deaths and numbers of deaths that occur in versus outside the hospital) that are also not available for up to two years after the end of the season being estimated.
The 2017-2018 estimates are still preliminary because not all of the required data are currently available. When those data become available, these estimates will be updated again and the results may change.
Homefryy
Active Member
- Location
- Salt Lake City
Looks like he is walking it back then because yesterday the UK revised it's predictions based on his updated assessment
Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer - Washington Examiner
A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected, the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the...
They revised their predictions because they are locking everything down. That 500k deaths number would still be valid if people were allowed to go about their business as usual.
Tonkaman
Well-Known Member
- Location
- West Jordan
I fear desperate people far more than the virus
Noahfecks
El Destructo!
- Location
- Glenwoody Springs, CO
So the two days of lock down made a 96% difference, that's quite an impact, doesn't even make sense if you say it outloud. So what happens when everyone goes back out in two weeks, revise the numbers back up to 480K?
Noahfecks
El Destructo!
- Location
- Glenwoody Springs, CO
As a vet I am sure you spent more time in cellular biology than I did. I understood this strain of viruses to be RNA not DNA based.
Why is it that the overwhelming majority of humans have very mild to moderate reaction to infection? Do we already have natural immunity perhaps from other viruses that our systems recognize?
Noahfecks
El Destructo!
- Location
- Glenwoody Springs, CO
To address and earlier question about the financial impact.
When the idiot Nixon took us off the gold standard he created a string of dominoes. On the plus side there are many dominoes that can be moved to stimulate or slow down the economy. Right now the fed is playing the last of it's dominoes, there are no more tricks left in the sleeve.
The only thing that props up the dollar and the world economy is the faith that people and governments will pay their debts. An economy that grinds to a halt triggers the first dominoes. those that live paycheck to paycheck are the first to fall, unable to make their obligations to creditors and landlords. The next level, landlords and small lenders, is better positioned to stand up to a minor disruption but after a couple of months they also begin to fall. 48% of Americans work for a small business, the average small business has two weeks or less in cash reserves. So much of the country has already been shut down for two weeks, cash reserves are gone. The government is stepping in with emergency cash to prop these businesses, but those that are lucky enough to get the money will still only get 8 weeks of relief. We are already seeing margin calls in the derrivatives market that people cant meet. That stimulus comes at a cost, you can't just print $6.5TT (with no way to pay it back) and not have inflation, that inflation compounds the problem by diluting the staying power of those who might still have cash reserves. Larger and larger dominoes start falling including banks and lending institutions. Without banks and lending institutions the only way to stay in business is to still have cash reserves, and very few will, but why would they stay in business? No one has any money left to pay for goods and services. Grocery stores dont have the ability to pay employees or buy products from the few remaining manufacturers who are still in business. People stat getting hungry, and the chaos starts. It can happen pretty fast, if we remain under these shutdown orders past the end of April, and the bigger dominoes will start falling. No one can predict the exact point of no return but we are accelerating towards it.
I live in a greater community area of 36K people, in the last two days I have taken applications for roughly $25MM in stimulus loans and I am only one lender, how long do you think $350BB is going to last? A completely unscientific rough calculation says that it takes $694 per capita to keep businesses afloat for 8 weeks, we have 330MM people, thats $229TT needed to sustain even the next 8 weeks. How long before the major metro areas start tearing each other apart?
Yes, this is a worst case scenario, but since that seems to be the standard for responding to the virus, why not apply that logic to the economic cost?
When the idiot Nixon took us off the gold standard he created a string of dominoes. On the plus side there are many dominoes that can be moved to stimulate or slow down the economy. Right now the fed is playing the last of it's dominoes, there are no more tricks left in the sleeve.
The only thing that props up the dollar and the world economy is the faith that people and governments will pay their debts. An economy that grinds to a halt triggers the first dominoes. those that live paycheck to paycheck are the first to fall, unable to make their obligations to creditors and landlords. The next level, landlords and small lenders, is better positioned to stand up to a minor disruption but after a couple of months they also begin to fall. 48% of Americans work for a small business, the average small business has two weeks or less in cash reserves. So much of the country has already been shut down for two weeks, cash reserves are gone. The government is stepping in with emergency cash to prop these businesses, but those that are lucky enough to get the money will still only get 8 weeks of relief. We are already seeing margin calls in the derrivatives market that people cant meet. That stimulus comes at a cost, you can't just print $6.5TT (with no way to pay it back) and not have inflation, that inflation compounds the problem by diluting the staying power of those who might still have cash reserves. Larger and larger dominoes start falling including banks and lending institutions. Without banks and lending institutions the only way to stay in business is to still have cash reserves, and very few will, but why would they stay in business? No one has any money left to pay for goods and services. Grocery stores dont have the ability to pay employees or buy products from the few remaining manufacturers who are still in business. People stat getting hungry, and the chaos starts. It can happen pretty fast, if we remain under these shutdown orders past the end of April, and the bigger dominoes will start falling. No one can predict the exact point of no return but we are accelerating towards it.
I live in a greater community area of 36K people, in the last two days I have taken applications for roughly $25MM in stimulus loans and I am only one lender, how long do you think $350BB is going to last? A completely unscientific rough calculation says that it takes $694 per capita to keep businesses afloat for 8 weeks, we have 330MM people, thats $229TT needed to sustain even the next 8 weeks. How long before the major metro areas start tearing each other apart?
Yes, this is a worst case scenario, but since that seems to be the standard for responding to the virus, why not apply that logic to the economic cost?
Pike2350
Registered User
- Location
- Salt Lake City
To me the predictions are always "worst case scenarios" they rarely pan out near as bad.
Hell I just read that Seattle epicenter for a few weeks has already leveled off in new cases....also, another article on Deseret News that I had read in a previous article about how this may not last as long as people think. It was prediction from a nobel laureate...who had predicted Chinas infection and death numbers back in February.
Its all up in the air....but I tend to be more optimistic on both economic and sickness fronts...although Im more concerned about the economic impact.
There will be a great loss of life which is sad...but I'm guessing it will be far less than the predictions. Social distancing is a good measure as is being aware of how easily you can transmit the virus...and taking precautions.
As for Italy and Spain...they are not good countries to compare to. They are generally heavy smokers, older populations and very "familial" in their culture. It's no surprise they are seeing more devastating impacts than other parts of the world. It's sad, bit those things are what th is virus exploits...so its more understandable when you look at it in that way.
I just want normality to return. Working from home is rough with a toddler and a wife. I see less babies being born in 9 months....and a spike in divorces. Babies are usually born out of celebratory events (end of WWII, winning Super Bowl,etc) you don't see the same spike when stress and anxiety feed the isolation
Hell I just read that Seattle epicenter for a few weeks has already leveled off in new cases....also, another article on Deseret News that I had read in a previous article about how this may not last as long as people think. It was prediction from a nobel laureate...who had predicted Chinas infection and death numbers back in February.
Its all up in the air....but I tend to be more optimistic on both economic and sickness fronts...although Im more concerned about the economic impact.
There will be a great loss of life which is sad...but I'm guessing it will be far less than the predictions. Social distancing is a good measure as is being aware of how easily you can transmit the virus...and taking precautions.
As for Italy and Spain...they are not good countries to compare to. They are generally heavy smokers, older populations and very "familial" in their culture. It's no surprise they are seeing more devastating impacts than other parts of the world. It's sad, bit those things are what th is virus exploits...so its more understandable when you look at it in that way.
I just want normality to return. Working from home is rough with a toddler and a wife. I see less babies being born in 9 months....and a spike in divorces. Babies are usually born out of celebratory events (end of WWII, winning Super Bowl,etc) you don't see the same spike when stress and anxiety feed the isolation
@DAA I appreciate your viewpoint on the economics of things. It gave me some good things to think about. You did it all without name calling or poking fun of anyone.
I also appreciate everyone that is writing about things they have knowledge of. I don't address the economics of things because I have little experience in that area. I would look foolish if I tried.
Obviously, this whole lockdown thing can't go on forever and I don't think it should. If it can buy us time to get additional equipment and take us outside the window of normal flu season it will be a huge win (in my opinion). Whether it is a few more weeks or a month it will help. Honestly, with the virology of this thing every single day will help. 100 cases at beginning of month, 5,000 last week, 50,000 on Tuesday, and 100,000 now. Again, I am not speaking of economic impact because I don't understand it.
I also appreciate everyone that is writing about things they have knowledge of. I don't address the economics of things because I have little experience in that area. I would look foolish if I tried.
Obviously, this whole lockdown thing can't go on forever and I don't think it should. If it can buy us time to get additional equipment and take us outside the window of normal flu season it will be a huge win (in my opinion). Whether it is a few more weeks or a month it will help. Honestly, with the virology of this thing every single day will help. 100 cases at beginning of month, 5,000 last week, 50,000 on Tuesday, and 100,000 now. Again, I am not speaking of economic impact because I don't understand it.
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Houndoc
Registered User
- Location
- Grantsville
Excellent questions.
There certainly is the possibility of cross immunity as the Corona virus family is large. Many harmless, others such as SARS potentially fatal.
There are also a multitude of factors that affect how an individual will respond to an infection. Many of those are not yet understood with COVID-19.
We have a man from here in Grantsville, age 42 and no known underlying health on life support.
So be careful.
- Location
- Grantsville, Utah
I used to work with him.
- Location
- Stinkwater
Abbot Labs has market approval for a rapid COVID-19 test, apparently using existing strep testing equipment that every clinic and Dr's office already has? They're saying positive results come as fast as five minutes, up to 13 for the negative result to be confirmed. They're set to be turning out kits to point of care facilities in a week.
www.marketwatch.com
edit - better link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-abbott-idUSKBN21F014
Abbott Labs receives FDA approval for rapid COVID-19 test
Abbott Laboratories undefined said late Friday that it received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a rapid COVID-19...
www.marketwatch.com
edit - better link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-abbott-idUSKBN21F014
Jesser04
Well-Known Member
- Location
- Kaysville Utah
Jesser04
Well-Known Member
- Location
- Kaysville Utah
I know there is a number of self employed members on here. I’m interested in what you do and what effects you've had already from the social distancing. I own a small dry cleaning business with two locations my revenue has dropped to 30% of normal for the last two weeks (it literally happen over night) I went from 13 employees to 2 not including myself. I had a coming to Jesus talk with myself and made some tough decisions in a short period of time. I’m confident I can ride this out till Christmas but I’m not sure after that.
The only silver lining if there is one is we as small businesses are mostly in the same boat they can’t evict us all! I think adversity builds character the last two weeks I’ve had an extra bounce in my step it’s weird but for me there is something exciting about having you back against the wall.
The only silver lining if there is one is we as small businesses are mostly in the same boat they can’t evict us all! I think adversity builds character the last two weeks I’ve had an extra bounce in my step it’s weird but for me there is something exciting about having you back against the wall.