Need Expedition planning/estimating help...

[ZUKEYPR]

My experience in leading groups into wilderness areas is less than a dozen trips (backpacking, desert trekking and mountaineering). I'm still learning guys, and I enjoy it.

QUOTE]

That wouldn't even register as a rookie guide in my book. I've led more than that this year alone and wouldn't want to take on what you are about to.

You may find that one of the only insurance companies willing to take you on would be Lloyd's. http://www.lloyds.com/ any "high risk" activity is extremely expensive now a days. This is why you rarely see anymore small businesses such as bungee jumping or really small skydiving clubs. The costs sky rocketed about 5 to 10 years ago making only the rather large companies such as river rafting companies that deal with massive volume able to be afford it and still make a profit. I want to say the percentage that was given when I checked into opening up an adventure type business was mid 80% of high risk type business went under due to the increase. Going without insurance is absolutely asinine. Don't thing just because you allegedly have some experience that nothing can happen. I personally found that out myself at the tune of 80 grand and one life flight later a few months back and based on what you have revealed I have an entire lifetime more experience at wheeling than you.

Something else you didn't bother to consider is if they are all inexperienced wheelers I highly doubt that they are experienced at trail repairs of any kind. I don't know how many times I've been out with a group and had multiple failures. Just this week we had a track bar mount crack, then completely dissinigrate, then have a radius arm on the same rig break both front and rear mounts. Would you know what to do to get it off the trail?

What about the clients or friends if you wish to refer to them as such special dietary needs or medical needs. DO you even have a sat phone for emergency evacs, do you know how to determine Lz’s for such a situation. Where you are talking about going there are bugu places that you will not get coverage I know, I have traveled that area extensively.

A tail gunner will do absolutely nothing to speed up the trip, if you have someone less experienced as others or breaks down in fear because they are hanging off the edge of say "Double down" on HITR or "don't like" the bumpy ride the rig is provided on a specific trail.

You haven't addressed a Waste Gunner either. What are you going to do if one of the rigs breaks down and cannot continue, stop everyone’s trip or have someone to get them off the trail.

What are you navigation skills like? Can you even plot a course on a topo via your GPS or better yet with a compass in the event that the GPS fails? It's happen to me a few times. I as well have been on trails where there has been so much carnage that what was needed was to get off the trail in the shortest distance. If you have none of those skills you'll be SOL.

The worst person on this trip IMO would be the EMT/first responder. He/she is opening themselves up to gargantuan liability.

 

[mbryson]

My experience in leading groups into wilderness areas is less than a dozen trips (backpacking, desert trekking and mountaineering). I'm still learning guys, and I enjoy it.

QUOTE]

That wouldn't even register as a rookie guide in my book. I've led more than that this year alone and wouldn't want to take on what you are about to.

You may find that one of the only insurance companies willing to take you on would be Lloyd's. http://www.lloyds.com/ any "high risk" activity is extremely expensive now a days. This is why you rarely see anymore small businesses such as bungee jumping or really small skydiving clubs. The costs sky rocketed about 5 to 10 years ago making only the rather large companies such as river rafting companies that deal with massive volume able to be afford it and still make a profit. I want to say the percentage that was given when I checked into opening up an adventure type business was mid 80% of high risk type business went under due to the increase. Going without insurance is absolutely asinine. Don't thing just because you allegedly have some experience that nothing can happen. I personally found that out myself at the tune of 80 grand and one life flight later a few months back and based on what you have revealed I have an entire lifetime more experience at wheeling than you.

Something else you didn't bother to consider is if they are all inexperienced wheelers I highly doubt that they are experienced at trail repairs of any kind. I don't know how many times I've been out with a group and had multiple failures. Just this week we had a track bar mount crack, then completely dissinigrate, then have a radius arm on the same rig break both front and rear mounts. Would you know what to do to get it off the trail?

What about the clients or friends if you wish to refer to them as such special dietary needs or medical needs. DO you even have a sat phone for emergency evacs, do you know how to determine Lz’s for such a situation. Where you are talking about going there are bugu places that you will not get coverage I know, I have traveled that area extensively.

A tail gunner will do absolutely nothing to speed up the trip, if you have someone less experienced as others or breaks down in fear because they are hanging off the edge of say "Double down" on HITR or "don't like" the bumpy ride the rig is provided on a specific trail.

You haven't addressed a Waste Gunner either. What are you going to do if one of the rigs breaks down and cannot continue, stop everyone’s trip or have someone to get them off the trail.

What are you navigation skills like? Can you even plot a course on a topo via your GPS or better yet with a compass in the event that the GPS fails? It's happen to me a few times. I as well have been on trails where there has been so much carnage that what was needed was to get off the trail in the shortest distance. If you have none of those skills you'll be SOL.

The worst person on this trip IMO would be the EMT/first responder. He/she is opening themselves up to gargantuan liability.

All good points and the reason most of us won't call ourselves a "guide" or accept money to show someone around.

 

[kevowheeler]

Thanks for your input Zukey.

Vehicles will be new Rubicons. Not likely to get much breakage going over Elephant Hill. I'm not going to be doing extreme trails (like Kane Creek or something like that).

Already looking into insurance, waivers, etc.

I would think having an EMT would be smart - Wilderness first aid may be needed. I'm planning on taking a wilderness first aid class so I'll be qualified to handle basic emergencies.

I'm not too experienced with GPS, I'm more old school: Compass and maps. I'm sure I'll be using a GPS more for new route-finding.

Still looking into communications. Walkie-talkies for short range between drivers; CB radio for communication with tail-gunner (exclusive from others); HAM or SAT phone for emergencies (or both).

I already know that a lot of problems can happen in the backcountry. Hopefully that can be minimized by being well prepared and have some back-up plans.

I do plan to pre-run my trails within a month before the trip, just to check the condition. Just a note: recently the Lockhart Basin Road has been a mess at the 'runoff canyon' section. Elephant Hill Trail is easier now than it was just 3 years ago. They've grated and paved more sections (like SOB Hill). You could drive a stock 4WD large truck through it now (I recommend diff-locks for Bobby's Hole, though - it's still pretty scraggly).

I'll be talking with other guides and find out how they cover their rear-ends, enjoy the trail with their customers, and get paid doing it.

Thanks for the input.

 

[Stephen]

I'm not going to be doing extreme trails (like Kane Creek...

 

[Cody]

haha, I cought that too.

 

[rondo]

Just to clarify: I never said "elaborate and unnecessary" when referring to my kitchen set-up. On the contrary - I go with a very spartan kitchen, but I know that things like, "I use an all-propane set up with my lantern, stove, etc." is actually a helpful statement, and at the same time, not revealing any 'trade secrets'.

Thanks for your concern, though, you know... regarding the camp kitchen and all. lol.



Sorry I came across that way. I'm kind of feeling that vibe coming from you.

I'll stop asking for advice from you now. You really don't even have a clue about my experience level. I just wanted some advice - obviously you're not the person that's willing to give any.

Kevo i suggest you ignore cody. all you'll get from him is smarta$$ remarks. you're just encouraging him.

 

[Cody]

I suggest you listen to Rondo. He's right on the money.

pssst, Rondo, by naming me directly you are also encouraging me


Plus, it's not like I'm one of the primary organizers of an event 5x's as big that has been successfully running for over a decade or anything.

 

[Stephen]

On a more serious note, though. Since he is planning on running trails that traverse National Parks, won't he need permits from the NP as well?
The more that comes out about this little adventure, the more I tend to think that keeping this whole deal under $700/person is going to be impossible.

 

[scoutabout]

I'm not going to be doing extreme trails (like Kane Creek or something like that).

Sorry, I had to laugh at that too.

I would think having an EMT would be smart

He's saying it wouldn't be smart for the EMT. Way too much liability. We tried to get some EMT's and RN's to help out on an organized run for U4WDA (a non-profit), and everyone I talked to turned us down on the basis of liability. We even get liability waivers signed by all participants, and still no one would offer their services.

 

[Cody]

At GS, we typically have a handful of Dr's that actually participate in the event, so that is somewhat comforting. This year, the only trail that didn't have a Dr. on it was the trail that ran smack dab into a crashed airplane, complete with warm motors and dead bodies.

 

[kevowheeler]

Thanks guys - I'll let you know how it all turns out.

 

[kevowheeler]

Everyone's laughing at my Kane Creek statement. I know it's probably mild for you guys - but that's okay. I haven't wheeled it so I don't know.


Later.

 

[ZUKEYPR]

Vehicles will be new Rubicons. Not likely to get much breakage going over Elephant Hill. I'm not going to be doing extreme trails (like Kane Creek or something like that).

Speaking as an owner of a Rubicon/Unlimited and having it on the trails before it had 1,000 miles on it............Don't bet on it, especially with newby drivers. A Rubicon, purely argumentively might be the best four wheeler out of the box, but that doesn't mean that they don't have week links.

Already looking into insurance, waivers, etc.

That's good, I'm kind of curious to how much it will cost for a group that size if you can even get it.

I would think having an EMT would be smart - Wilderness first aid may be needed. I'm planning on taking a wilderness first aid class so I'll be qualified to handle basic emergencies.

You missed my point....LIABILITY. That's a large part of why are medical professionals cost so much due to the extreme cost of liability cost that they must carry.

I'm not too experienced with GPS, I'm more old school: Compass and maps. I'm sure I'll be using a GPS more for new route-finding.

This statement has "trouble" written all over it bud.

Still looking into communications. Walkie-talkies for short range between drivers; CB radio for communication with tail-gunner (exclusive from others); HAM or SAT phone for emergencies (or both).

Wait until you see how much that sat phone digs into that $700.00 price tag or the hamm for that matter for the equipment and licensing.

I already know that a lot of problems can happen in the backcountry. Hopefully that can be minimized by being well prepared and have some back-up plans.

Yeah but you didn't answer the question, would you know what to do if a trackbar mount dissennegrated as well as the drivers side radius arm? Would you know what to do if you had someone pinned underneath a rig and had internal bleeding..........what about someone experiencing the symtoms of a heart attack and you had nothing and a dust-off were hours away. Do you even know the modern basic CPR chest compressions to breaths ratio?

I do plan to pre-run my trails within a month before the trip, just to check the condition. Just a note: recently the Lockhart Basin Road has been a mess at the 'runoff canyon' section. Elephant Hill Trail is easier now than it was just 3 years ago. They've grated and paved more sections (like SOB Hill). You could drive a stock 4WD large truck through it now (I recommend diff-locks for Bobby's Hole, though - it's still pretty scraggly).

Diff locks for Bobby's Hole? You're kidding right. I can take a suburu WRX through it, I was just recently on it.....in fact twice in the last year.

BLUF: Everyone is trying to tell you, some nicer than others, that you don't have the knowledge, experience, skills, nor abilities to safely and effectively carry out this venture. It's not just about you and making money, it's more about the safety of the consumer. They're trying to save your ass.....ets. The best advice I can give to you is listen to them, many of folks who have responded to this thread are those most experienced at leading multi-day trips in the state.

 

[Stephen]

BLUF: Everyone is trying to tell you, some nicer than others, that you don't have the knowledge, experience, skills, nor abilities to safely and effectively carry out this venture. It's not just about you and making money, it's more about the safety of the consumer. They're trying to save your ass.....ets. The best advice I can give to you is listen to them, many of folks who have responded to this thread are those most experienced at leading multi-day trips in the state.

Nail on the head.

Out of curiosity, kevowheeler, what is your name or the name of your guide company? I'm curious to find out more about your past expeditions. It's a purely academic interest, but I'd like to hear about how you've managed to make a living (or at least some money) by leading expeditions of various sorts with your limited experience. Please don't take offense to this question (I already know you will), but I truly would like to know.

 

[kevowheeler]

10-4.

No offense taken.

 

[Rick B]

I wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole and I've been wheeling around Moab for over 30 years.

Your story seems to keep changing, enough already.

3 years ago it was $105 per day to rent a 2 door Wrangler. The 4 door Rubi's you're talking about are probably more than $150 per day now. Throw in gas at over $4.00 per gallon. Then I seriously doubt any place around here would let you take a Jeep off their lot until you provide proof that it is insured. I know of a rental Rubi that was recently rolled, you can bet that others do as well. Let the rental place find out that your drivers have little or no experience and they may not rent to you at all.

I'm estimating that the chance of something going wrong at 90% and the chance of someone being killed at 25%. Do you really think these people will say they know you and are your friend when the LEO's are talking to them? I think they are much more likely to sue both you and the land management agency.

I think you are dreaming at $700 per person, and I read it to say that icluded airfare originally. Since then you've said different, but I don't think you could do this for twice that, $1400 per person, even if they pay their own airfare.

You're talking about going over Elephant Hill and through Bobby's Hole. The latest word is that absolutely nothing is getting up or down the hill in Bobby's Hole, it has been washed out. Both the BLM and San Juan County have absolutley no plans to send in anything that could fix the road. After all it may be closed in a couple of months, the road to get there definitely will and they can't afford to have something trapped there for several months. There just isn't enough money to take care of all the roads. They're too busy being sued by every Tom, Dick, and Harry. It will be next Spring before the road is open again and maybe not then.

To top it all off you don't have enough time to get the permits and insurance. And unless you are a total moron you will get them.

Finally, your skill level isn't even on the same page as what would be required for this type of trip. The smart move is to call it all off now, while you can.

Now I know this post isn't very nice. I'm trying to help you out here. Don't do it.

 

[Houndoc]

I'm estimating ..... the chance of someone being killed at 25%.

The rest of you post makes sense, but that number????? Seems far less realistic than his trip plans.

 

[Rick B]

It never fails, someone who doesn't know me or my personal experiences always has to nitpick something. You even quoted the important part IT IS MY ESTIMATE. Based on the fact that no one has any experience I feel that MY ESTIMATE is probably a good one, knowing how many really die around here (a whole lot more than you ever hear of) doesn't hurt either. You are always free to make your own ESTIMATE any time you wish.

 

[Cody]

hey, 62% of the time it works every time.

 

[SAMI]

Houndoc, think about all the variables.. One person not wearing a seat belt.. Improper lifting of the vehicle when changing a tire... A bit too much speed around a loose gravel corner.. Hatcheting of a leg instead of the intended target(firewood... maybe incompotent guide?)... Distracted driver in the dust of the forward vehicle = not stopping in time.. Allergies? Health issues, ie, heart attacks; very possible scenario.. Snake bite..

There's countless scenarios that could kill any one of us if we let our gaurd down. Take away common sense and the experience that most travelers/explorers on RME possess, and you have a liability time bomb set to detonate in your face.

I think 25% is a decent estimate... But, Cody's got a good point too.

-Jason