cool logic problems
- Thread starter Cody
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ChestonScout
opinions are like Jeeps..
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- Clinton, Ut
depends on where you live in the world.....some places goats are much more desireable than cars..
But your chances are the same either door you choose
Unless Im a retard (most likely)
But your chances are the same either door you choose
Unless Im a retard (most likely)
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Yes it is an advantage to switch doors at that point.
Why? I can't remember, I only know the answer. Too bad I don't, other I'd sound pretty smart.
It actually ups your chances by quite if I remember correctly.
ChestonScout is clearly retarded.
Oh I think I got it.
Originally you have a 33% chance of picking the correct door with the car. So picking the first time gives you a 33% chance of getting the car.
Once one incorrect door is opened there are now two doors left. Now one door you know is wrong and only have two remaining choices. Which gives you a 66% chance of winning. (original 33% percent chance plus the incorrect 33%)
I think...
Why? I can't remember, I only know the answer. Too bad I don't, other I'd sound pretty smart.
It actually ups your chances by quite if I remember correctly.
ChestonScout is clearly retarded.
Oh I think I got it.
Originally you have a 33% chance of picking the correct door with the car. So picking the first time gives you a 33% chance of getting the car.
Once one incorrect door is opened there are now two doors left. Now one door you know is wrong and only have two remaining choices. Which gives you a 66% chance of winning. (original 33% percent chance plus the incorrect 33%)
I think...
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ChestonScout
opinions are like Jeeps..
- Location
- Clinton, Ut
How long til you tell me Im a retard?
Maybe you aren't?
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it's 2/3 technically
But, why is it 2/3 professor? Knowing the answer isn't enough!!!I think it was on the show 21, but the paradox that both of these problems are variants of was first published in the late 1800's....or just slightly before the movie
Exactly what I was thinking.. You just went from 33.33% chance of choosing the car to the two choices... If the host suggests a door, they're probably leading you to the other goat anyways.. . It changes everything
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it's 2/3 technically
I think it was on the show 21, but the paradox that both of these problems are variants of was first published in the late 1800's....or just slightly before the movie
I learned my answer on NUMB3RS.
RockChucker
Well-Known Member
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TJDukit
I.Y.A.A.Y.A.S.
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- Clearfield
The way I see it, as I see it with anything like gambling. You have a 50/50 chance either you are going to win or you aren't it's that simple. Granted I usually don't win but it doesn't change that fact that there are only two outcomes.
If it were at random, then yes it would be 50/50. But the question states the host knows the location, so it becomes variable probability.
So, if you choose door one, you have 1/3 chance it's your door, and a 2/3 choice it's one of the others. The host eliminates one of the other doors, and you know the host didn't pick a door at random, then the odds are 2/3 for door #2 and 1/3 for door #1 at that point.
as for the dog gender one...same logic. Think about throwing a 2, 2 sided doggie-die. There are only 4 possible outcomes: MM, FF, MF, FM
if you know at least one of them is a mail, you can eliminate FF. You now have MM, MF, FM of which 2/3 of the possibility is for F. So, it's 1/3 that it's a male and 2/3 for a female.
If the question was "if the older one is a male, then what are the odds the younger one is a male" then it would imply specific order to the equation, in which case the odds would be 50/50 because they are independent probabilities.
restated this way is fun to mess with people too.
For the reason stated above, the woman's odds are 1/3 and the man's are 1/2
So, if you choose door one, you have 1/3 chance it's your door, and a 2/3 choice it's one of the others. The host eliminates one of the other doors, and you know the host didn't pick a door at random, then the odds are 2/3 for door #2 and 1/3 for door #1 at that point.
as for the dog gender one...same logic. Think about throwing a 2, 2 sided doggie-die. There are only 4 possible outcomes: MM, FF, MF, FM
if you know at least one of them is a mail, you can eliminate FF. You now have MM, MF, FM of which 2/3 of the possibility is for F. So, it's 1/3 that it's a male and 2/3 for a female.
If the question was "if the older one is a male, then what are the odds the younger one is a male" then it would imply specific order to the equation, in which case the odds would be 50/50 because they are independent probabilities.
restated this way is fun to mess with people too.
For the reason stated above, the woman's odds are 1/3 and the man's are 1/2
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i must admit, took me a while to get my brain wrapped around it, but its legit.
This explains it all in more detail and why its not 50/50 when one door is opened with a goat behind it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem
Its easier to conceptualize if you use say 100 doors, where you pick one and the host opens up all the other 98 doors with goats.
This explains it all in more detail and why its not 50/50 when one door is opened with a goat behind it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem
Its easier to conceptualize if you use say 100 doors, where you pick one and the host opens up all the other 98 doors with goats.
TJDukit
I.Y.A.A.Y.A.S.
- Location
- Clearfield
I'm not saying that those are the actual odds of winning, i know that it is now a 66% chance. In my view thats how I always look at things like that, it's not based on anything mathematical or logical really.
Spork
Tin Foil Hat Equipped
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