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UNSTUCK

UNSTUCK

But stuck more often.
So in your opinions, what needs to actually happen for this event to turn into the Wild West? I mean, if they close the grocery stores and tell people they just need to live off their food storage, are we thinking guns will then be used to get my food, or my gun will be used to protect my food?
 
Houndoc

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
benjy said:
C'mon, I don't think this needs to be hyped up more than it already is. The WHO is saying mortality rate is 3-4% of reported deaths/reported cases. Reports out of Italy and China are that only the extreme cases and elderly are being tested. This is going to drastically overstate mortality rate. Average age of reported deaths in Italy is 80 years old. Not to downplay the tragedy of deaths of vulnerable population, but to say 6% without qualifications is fear mongering
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We can argue and bitch about whether the death rate is 4% or 6%, that is really besides the point and statistic vary day to day and will vary by source. Nothing out of the ordinary there by any means when discussing medical outcomes.

Even the impact of numbers tested is of limited importance when talking about death rates. In the study of most any disease we look at deaths as a percent of clinical cases- whether we are talking about Covid 19, influenza or cancer, undiagnosed cases do not figure into the statistics. Although wide spread testing in countries such a South Korea probably explains why their 'survival' rate is higher since many of those tested likely showed little to no symptoms (an entire different discussion would be as to whether or not testing those not needing treatment is a good use of medical resources.)

The real idea is that we have a new infection that the population as a whole lacks immunity to (the biggest difference compared to most flu seasons, with a few notable exceptions such as 1918-19.)
 
Hickey

Hickey

Burn-barrel enthusiast
Supporting Member
Location
Grantsville, Utah
UNSTUCK said:
So in your opinions, what needs to actually happen for this event to turn into the Wild West? I mean, if they close the grocery stores and tell people they just need to live off their food storage, are we thinking guns will then be used to get my food, or my gun will be used to protect my food?
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I think Benjy nailed it earlier in the thread. We need to maintain security at our stores and their deliveries. If we have another Reginald Denney situation happen, truckdrivers like me will stay home and we'll all have to fend for ourselves.

The best thing the government could do to keep me rollin, is engage the National Guard for security at truck stops and stores. I just need one Hum-Vee behind each store with a pair of good ol boys keeping people from gettin ideas.
 
Jesser04

Jesser04

Well-Known Member
Location
Kaysville Utah
SAMI said:
I believe that we're 1-2wks away from this point.
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You could just as easily put hours or days behind it at this point. I blame the nba they started this whole thing. If they never woulda cancelled that game nobody would have lost there shit. I feel like where we’re at now is a domino effect on everything I give it till Wednesday night the whole country will be on lock down.
 
Noahfecks

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
Location
Glenwoody Springs, CO
Kevin B. said:
^ More on that: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03...dont-do-what-we-did/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

@Noahfecks, I get that you're skeptical of anything that comes from the mainstream media and that being told to modify your life for this thing chafes. My suggestion would be to get past CNN and BBC and look to primary sources for your info. I posted some upthread, there's tons others out there. Ignore the hyperbole and the articles about toilet paper hoarders and look at the raw numbers.

Or look at eyewitness testimony from people that are the thick of it now. Here's a quote from that article I just linked:
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I am talking to eyewitnesses, first hand, not a story on the internet. Our community is in full blown infection right now. I likely have it as I am typing, have everything but the fever and was informed by CDC in person that I have been in direct close and sustained contact with confirmed infected. Don't believe the hype!!!

Jesser04 said:
Am I the only one who thinks we’re on the verge of seeing some apocalyptic shit? 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck I think by the end of the week the country will be on lockdown for 2 weeks minimum. When that 78% goes a couple pay periods without a check shit will get real and fast.
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This is the real threat to public health and safety here. When there is no more food and gas people are going to loose their sh!t.
 
Kevin B.

Kevin B.

Not often wrong. Never quite right.
Moderator
Location
Stinkwater
UNSTUCK said:
So in your opinions, what needs to actually happen for this event to turn into the Wild West? I mean, if they close the grocery stores and tell people they just need to live off their food storage, are we thinking guns will then be used to get my food, or my gun will be used to protect my food?
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Wild West would be a worst case scenario. For us to get there we need a near-complete breakdown of society, and I don't see that happening on our current trajectory.

To be clear, I don't think they'll be closing grocery stores except maybe in specific areas experiencing violence, and if they do they'll have an alternate food supply chain that they'll try to implement. Malls and retail outlets will definitely be closed/restricted, restaurants are already restricted, groceries and gas stores will remain open but may go to a no-contact/shop online and pick up outside sort of format? The really big cities may see some Katrina-esque violence and looting if the hospital situation gets ugly, but I don't see much that here in Utah suburbs? I suspect there will be a strong police presence (and maybe Nat Guard as noted) specifically to discourage that sort of thing. The power grid will stay up, water is going to be running, I'm literally sitting here helping keep the telecom network up as we speak... we're not headed for Mad Max IMO.

What the Bay Area just did is where Italy has been for a week or so. Every-damned-body stays home unless you have a really good reason to be out, and I think that's where we're headed here too. The sooner we do it, the better. I think I'm already in that mode - I'm working from home, the wife is schooling from home, the kids are home. We've got some food storage, so I'll be venturing out for essentials for me or my elderly neighbors, or for some socially-distant outside time, and that'll be that until this thing blows over.
 
nnnnnate

nnnnnate

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Location
WVC, UT
From my research time with "Contagion" I learned some valuable terminology. "R0", which is pronounced "R naught" is generally defined as the average number of people a sick person infects within a population without immunity to the disease.

The R0 of the seasonal influenza is about 1.3. H1N1 had a RO of 1.2-1.6, Ebola 1.6-2, SARS 2-4. MERS 2.5-7.2. The RO for COVID-19 is still being calculated but they generally fall within the range of 2-3.2.

The R0 is obviously just one piece of the puzzle. The next step is to determine the mortality rate of those who become infected to get an idea of how damaging the virus can become. The WHO has estimated that the coronavirus kills about 3 to 4% of those it infects. Thats a lot better than MEV-1 (Contagion) that kills 25% of the infected.

Finally, Matt Damon didn't deserve what Gwyneth did to him. She is a lying cheat and didn't deserve his love, she got what was coming to her, he didn't. (sigh)
 
Stephen

Stephen

Who Dares Wins
Moderator
Location
Never Far From Nowhere
Kevin B. said:
Anybody who thinks this thing is just hype isn't looking at the damned numbers. Put down the macho bullshit and learn something.

medium.com

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic

I wrote this post on Facebook on Thursday Night, March 12th 2020. Since I wrote it, the post been shared 120k times and I’ve been asked to…
medium.com medium.com
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To sum this up for the people who don't want to take the time to read it, we're looking at exponential growth here, not linear growth. So there are 50 confirmed cases in Utah right now, that means that there are actually 51,200 people out there who have the virus but have not been confirmed. And that number will double in three days if we do not take the drastic actions that are being recommended (but not ordered) by the Feds. Groups of no more than 10 people, older people (60+) staying home, and no unnecessary travel.

People who know me love to make fun of my literalness and profound knowledge of generally useless historical facts (ask Carl and Cody about our conversations at the RME Meet & Greet on Saturday). That said, to my knowledge, there is no comparable event in American history. The Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 can't really compare because of the relative lack of inter-connectivity of the nation. It was basically an issue in major metro areas and spread at a markedly slower rate. Remember, we didn't even have a paved transcontinental highway until the 1920's, so movement was much harder than it is today.

Regardless if we all lock ourselves in our homes today, this is going to be a national trauma of historic proportions in terms of the number of people who fall ill, have severe health problems, deaths, and the social and economic impacts that it will cause. I am not scared, per se, but I am literally dumbfounded by how quickly this has all happened. In 2020 America we were not supposed to have pandemics that shut society down. I was wrong. Do yourself and everyone else a favor and listen to the experts. Stay home, avoid travel, avoid groups and we'll pull through; but the other side is going to look very different.
 
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Stephen

Stephen

Who Dares Wins
Moderator
Location
Never Far From Nowhere
str8axleguy said:
I think your math is incorrect unless I misunderstood. 50 cases times 10 unconfirmed is 500, unless I’m missing something, I probably am.
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Exponential growth. From the article:
YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):
To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.
2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.
THIS PART IS IMPORTANT: Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals. There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.
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xjtony

xjtony

Well-Known Member
Location
Grantsville, Ut
Here are some overall numbers that I put together:

World population
7794798739
WHO confirmed cases world wide
169000
percentage of the population with CONFIRMED infection .002%

US pop
330000000
US infections
4743
percentage
.0014%

Utah pop
3161000
infections 39
percent
.0012%

The internet makes the world seem much smaller than it actually is and I think we forget about that. I'm not saying high risk people don't need to take precautions (my wife has T1D and asthma and we are taking the appropriate precautions). We really need to temper our reactions. What we are seeing is the first time in modern history that the internet is having a tangible, and possibly very dangerous, impact on the physical world.

Keep in mind these are reported confirmed numbers. I'm not going to speculate on how many people "may be infected"
 
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