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Coronavirus

Cody

Cody

Random Quote Generator
Supporting Member
Location
Gastown
xj_nate said:
Watching people argue about a virus on a rock crawling exploring forum is my favorite. Let's keep it up.
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Honestly, that's what I like most about this community. All sorts of people, from all sorts of backgrounds have all sorts of different things to offer to a discussion like this. I've told a ton of people that I find the discussion in this thread the most interesting and useful.

There are so many people I consider good friends that I never would have crossed paths with in any other way if it weren't for a mutual interest in being offroad, mutual membership to this forum, or mutual distaste for Stephen Nelson.
 
Houndoc

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
cruiseroutfit said:
Thoughts...

Why Flattening the Curve is Overrated

I’m about to upset a lot of people this week and I apologize in advance. I […]
www.pensford.com www.pensford.com

So we flatten the curve and things calm down as we roll into summer. How does it not happen again the next time a few infected people make it back to the US next fall and kick it all off again? Legit question, is the idea to buy time so a vaccine can be made and distributed to billions of people? How does this not take off again next fall assuming it doesnt like warm weather and Vitamin D? Do we isolate and shut-in every 6 months?
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A lot of comments on this already, and from a medical perspective several people did pretty much hit the nail on the head.

As has been discussed previously, what makes an emerging ("novel") disease particularly dangerous is the lack of immunity in the population. Few if any of us are going to have a strong immune response to fight off a virus we have no previous exposure to. Whether we get clinically sick or just become a carrier, the virus continues to spread.

Once a certain percent of the population has been exposed and developed immunity, the rate of further spread greatly decreases. This is why even though influenza is a serious and potentially fatal disease, the degree of social isolation isn't required during most flu seasons (exceptions being 1918-19 when the strain was different enough to more qualify as an 'novel' virus.) Between vaccinations and natural exposure, most the population has significant immunity to the virus.

If this 'herd immunity' develops at a rate that the roughly 10% who will require hospitalization can be treated without overwhelming the system, then it will be a success.
 
Noahfecks

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
Location
Glenwoody Springs, CO
In the footnotes of all the "flattening" models it says we will have to repeat the process over and over, it prevents little. Not to mention the underlying assumptions are flawed to the most extreme worst case scenario. Does anyone ever read the footnotes or assumptions anymore?

Why aren't we comparing ourselves to Germany who has done less to prevent the spread but has a mortality rate of .3%?

Stop crying Wolf little boy, you're using up your chips. Quarantine the 5% and everybody else get off your ass and get back to work, breaks over.
 
Noahfecks

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
Location
Glenwoody Springs, CO
Lets say half get this 330MM / 2 = 165MM

Mortality rate 2% like the model = 3.3MM Deaths
Mortality rate .3% less drama scenario = 495K Deaths

Now lets look at this like a military operation, in the planning phase there is always a determination of acceptable losses. What we have to do is determine what our acceptable losses are. For comparison the flu killed 85K last year and no one blinked, obviously that was an acceptable loss. Do those 495K lives matter? hell Yes! Will they be missed? hell yes! Are their lives worth the total collapse of our economy? I don't think so, but that's the decision to be made isn't it?

I bet we could effectivly quarantine 495K people for waaayyy less than $2TT
 
mesha

mesha

By endurance we conquer
Location
A.F.
Noahfecks said:
In the footnotes of all the "flattening" models it says we will have to repeat the process over and over, it prevents little. Not to mention the underlying assumptions are flawed to the most extreme worst case scenario. Does anyone ever read the footnotes or assumptions anymore?

Why aren't we comparing ourselves to Germany who has done less to prevent the spread but has a mortality rate of .3%?

Stop crying Wolf little boy, you're using up your chips. Quarantine the 5% and everybody else get off your ass and get back to work, breaks over.
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Who is the little boy you refer? I assume the little boy is the proverbial little boy. Just wondering if you are calling someone on here out specifically.
 
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JeeperG

JeeperG

Well-Known Member
Location
Riverdale
Noahfecks said:
Nobody in particular, everyone that is blowing this out of proportion, the media, self serving politicians.........
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I can tell you those of us in manufacturing are still working, essential or not. Outside of Autoliv being down one facility cause of two positive tests. I specifically build reefer trailers and we are just adapting to the situation.
 
Noahfecks

Noahfecks

El Destructo!
Location
Glenwoody Springs, CO
Our stay at home order says that you can go out for essential functions like going to the store or walking your dog. I shit you not, literally says walking your dog. Ask me how I know this isn't that serious.
 
Hickey

Hickey

Burn-barrel enthusiast
Supporting Member
Location
Grantsville, Utah
Since the first shelter orders came down last week, I've driven all over the western states. I can tell you that the traffic has certainly decreased, but not nearly as much as I would have expected. I would guess that less than 50% of the population is in fact staying home. This seems to be true in every area I have driven through.
 
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