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Coronavirus

TRD270

TRD270

Emptying Pockets Again
Supporting Member
Location
SaSaSandy
Tonkaman said:
This is either bullshit or really bad news for the war against COVID-19.
www.iflscience.com

Mysterious Covid-19 Outbreak On Ship After 35 Days At Sea Stumps Scientists

Mysterious Covid-19 Outbreak On Ship After 35 Days At Sea Stumps Scientists
www.iflscience.com www.iflscience.com
Click to expand...


Perhaps because the validity of tests is a farce. The window you actually test positive with the test is small. So just like the warm fuzzy veil of protection being wrapped around peoples eyes the "negative" tests before setting sail are meaningless.
 
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anderson750

anderson750

I'm working on it Rose
Location
Price, Utah
With most tests there is usually an anticipated false positive rate based off of the research that was done to get the test approved by the FDA. I have never seen what the predicted rate of false positives are. Based on some reports of people testing positive then getting retested 2days later and coming up negative i believe it is not uncommon......like in the range of 3-5%. I dont think that is the case with the above story but like many other things......not much makes sense in this whole thing.

 
Houndoc

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
The weak-link in the test is we do not know the window when a test will be positive.
When a test is looking for actual infectious particles is a specific body system, that window can be as narrow as 24 hours. This gives very simple explanation for a positive test one day, negative a few days later that does not in anyway lessen the significance of the positive test.
If anything, this results in false negative tests. When you consider the over-all low positive test rate even in symptomatic people I strongly suspect the issue with the tests is more to do with false negatives than false positives (which can really only happen if you have a related virus present that cross reacts with the test.)
 
anderson750

anderson750

I'm working on it Rose
Location
Price, Utah
Houndoc said:
The weak-link in the test is we do not know the window when a test will be positive.
When a test is looking for actual infectious particles is a specific body system, that window can be as narrow as 24 hours. This gives very simple explanation for a positive test one day, negative a few days later that does not in anyway lessen the significance of the positive test.
If anything, this results in false negative tests. When you consider the over-all low positive test rate even in symptomatic people I strongly suspect the issue with the tests is more to do with false negatives than false positives (which can really only happen if you have a related virus present that cross reacts with the test.)
Click to expand...

Those factors are correct but I used to work in a major clinical lab in research park and there are more factors than what you outlined. These tests were rushed to market and since the COVID 19 shares similar RNA sequence to any of the other corona virus variants it is not implausible that the tests are picking one of the other 18 variants up....let alone the percentage that can be attribited to lab practices within each lab. You can compare rates from lab to lab and find differences.

This is not a black and white issue.......there is a lot of grey and fuzzy edges.
 
mbryson

mbryson

.......a few dollars more
Supporting Member
Location
Bountiful, land of rocks
Lots of gray out there with the Corona.... lots of “practice” going on. The “practice” (based in some scientific fact) we’ve allowed to shut down our whole world economy. I’m all for protecting vulnerable populations, but we still don’t seem to know really what this is. We do know we really can’t contain it.
 
glockman

glockman

I hate Jeep trucks
Location
Pleasant Grove
I'm about done with this whole thing. My 24 year old son got covid. He is an electrician, one guy on his crew got it, his whole crew was tested at different sites and they all had it, 6 of them. None of them had worse than a mild sore throat or stuffy nose. He lives with my 20 year old son and both their girlfriend live there. Only my oldest son ever tested positive and he was tested twice. I know it's anecdotal but I'm pretty data driven and it's my verifiable data.

Death and hospitalization rates from the Utah department of health show a steady 6% hospitalization since the beginning and a 0.7% death rate of tested positives.

My youngest son has Cystic Fibros, which is a serious if not terminal respiratory disease. His pulmonary specialist at primary childrens told us there have been children with cancer undergoing chemo who have had covid and recovered. But we are keeping schools closed?
The company I work for is highly scientific, we are very data based and they have all but shut down over emotionally driven policies. They literally said you can't come to work if you've been in a group of 250 people, then when asked about specifics like lagoon, said they were trying to define what 250 people meant.
The detachment from logic on every side is terrifying to me. Now they are putting people on house arrest for not signing contracts with the health department!
Im thinking it's close to Boogaloo time. This is the most stressed out I've been in recent memory.
 
anderson750

anderson750

I'm working on it Rose
Location
Price, Utah
glockman said:
I'm about done with this whole thing. My 24 year old son got covid. He is an electrician, one guy on his crew got it, his whole crew was tested at different sites and they all had it, 6 of them. None of them had worse than a mild sore throat or stuffy nose. He lives with my 20 year old son and both their girlfriend live there. Only my oldest son ever tested positive and he was tested twice. I know it's anecdotal but I'm pretty data driven and it's my verifiable data.

Death and hospitalization rates from the Utah department of health show a steady 6% hospitalization since the beginning and a 0.7% death rate of tested positives.

My youngest son has Cystic Fibros, which is a serious if not terminal respiratory disease. His pulmonary specialist at primary childrens told us there have been children with cancer undergoing chemo who have had covid and recovered. But we are keeping schools closed?
The company I work for is highly scientific, we are very data based and they have all but shut down over emotionally driven policies. They literally said you can't come to work if you've been in a group of 250 people, then when asked about specifics like lagoon, said they were trying to define what 250 people meant.
The detachment from logic on every side is terrifying to me. Now they are putting people on house arrest for not signing contracts with the health department!
Im thinking it's close to Boogaloo time. This is the most stressed out I've been in recent memory.
Click to expand...
Next up is the "every situation is different" analogy

Here is where my recent struggles are....and it mainly comes from my clinical background which also makes me look at the data differently....but I will preface this with the fact that I have not fully researched this theory so I could be wrong.

Corona virus is nothing new....it has been around for a long time in many different variants. The testing being used was rushed to "market" very quickly and is based upon the principle that they found a defining RNA sequence to COVID 19 that is different from all other Corona virus'. I do not have 100% confidence that what they are testing for does not have a close enough genetic similarity to other CV to not have positive tests. I am not going to call it a false positive, since it may actually be positive for a similar variant. Maybe it is a mutation of the original that is less virulant......maybe it is a totally separate virus.

In the end, maybe the test has great sensitivity but bad specificity.

When things are rushed there can be problems.......and we are supposed to trust a vaccine that they are predicting will be available by the end of the year? I think I will pass on this one.
 
RockChucker

RockChucker

Well-Known Member
Location
Highland
glockman said:
The company I work for is highly scientific, we are very data based and they have all but shut down over emotionally driven policies. They literally said you can't come to work if you've been in a group of 250 people, then when asked about specifics like lagoon, said they were trying to define what 250 people meant.
The detachment from logic on every side is terrifying to me. Now they are putting people on house arrest for not signing contracts with the health department!
Click to expand...

Yep. It's bonkers. I'm "quarantined" now for 2 weeks because I went to Idaho last weekend. Rural Idaho.
 
SAMI

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Location
SLC, UT
My neighbor's friend was pulled over the other day for a taillight out, and the officer commented that he saw she had tested positive for the rona.

This is entirely out of hand if the police/State have it pull up against your license plate.

*edited to add reason for the traffic stop
 
SAMI

SAMI

Formerly Beardy McGee
Location
SLC, UT
My neighbor is 100% sure she has it, as she was with her sister last week who then got sick and has tested positive. My neighbor has all the classic symptoms but refuses to get tested as to avoid being on this list.

I've been saying this for months now, don't get tested... Especially with what we now know is a 99%+ survival rate, wth is the point in testing unless you are admitted to the hospital? Just stay home as much as possible and take all needed precautions if you do need to leave the house.
 
Hickey

Hickey

Burn-barrel enthusiast
Supporting Member
Location
Grantsville, Utah
RockChucker said:
Yep. It's bonkers. I'm "quarantined" now for 2 weeks because I went to Idaho last weekend. Rural Idaho.
Click to expand...
That's just nuts to me. By that logic, I would never be allowed out of quarantine. I'm an "essential worker" though, so I guess the virus doesn't affect me?

I was in Idaho 3 different times last week. And Nevada, and Oregon, and blah blah blah.
 
jeeper

jeeper

I live my life 1 dumpster at a time
Location
So Jo, Ut
glockman said:
This is the most stressed out I've been in recent memory.
Click to expand...

I've just had to unplug from a lot of the media and forums / FB / Etc. My thoughts and opinions will change nothing, and does nothing to spout on line or to friends. I feel much better.
I need to throw some miles down on my new street bike, Maybe we should get you out on anther ride..
 
Houndoc

Houndoc

Registered User
Location
Grantsville
anderson750 said:
Those factors are correct but I used to work in a major clinical lab in research park and there are more factors than what you outlined. These tests were rushed to market and since the COVID 19 shares similar RNA sequence to any of the other corona virus variants it is not implausible that the tests are picking one of the other 18 variants up....let alone the percentage that can be attribited to lab practices within each lab. You can compare rates from lab to lab and find differences.

This is not a black and white issue.......there is a lot of grey and fuzzy edges.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I was trying to keep it relatively simple knowing not everyone on here has a medical or research background.

anderson750 said:
Corona virus is nothing new....it has been around for a long time in many different variants. The testing being used was rushed to "market" very quickly and is based upon the principle that they found a defining RNA sequence to COVID 19 that is different from all other Corona virus'. I do not have 100% confidence that what they are testing for does not have a close enough genetic similarity to other CV to not have positive tests. I am not going to call it a false positive, since it may actually be positive for a similar variant. Maybe it is a mutation of the original that is less virulant......maybe it is a totally separate virus.

In the end, maybe the test has great sensitivity but bad specificity.

When things are rushed there can be problems.......and we are supposed to trust a vaccine that they are predicting will be available by the end of the year? I think I will pass on this one.
Click to expand...

"Corona virus" is term that drives me nuts. Creates confusion and conspiracy theories (the 'they have had a corona vaccine for dogs since....so why not for people" type nonsense.) And yes, some do cross react with others (in cats, the harmless GI corona viruses can cross react on tests with the usually fatal FIP corona virus.)

And I agree completely that as quickly as they had to develop the tests, neither sensitivity or specificity are understood as well as we would require for most tests to even be on the market. Still, no real choice but to work with what we have.

SAMI said:
My neighbor's friend was pulled over the other day for a taillight out, and the officer commented that he saw she had tested positive for the rona.

This is entirely out of hand if the police/State have it pull up against your license plate.

*edited to add reason for the traffic stop
Click to expand...

I won't accept that as truth. "neighbor's friends" and "friend's neighbors" and "third cousin's ex-wives lawyer's former chiropractor" type stories don't hold much water with me.
 
moab_cj5

moab_cj5

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Location
The Village of Kay
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