Odds still against Trump winning?
I dunno. This is all nuts. The Democratic Party and its media allies have two choices here. Show unity and solidarity by rallying around Harris and doing
everything they can to rehabilitate her image since she is currently the most unpopular VP in history. OR they can fight it out and tear themselves apart.
The DNC it's a deeply conflicted and fractious coalition of interests. If you think the GOP has division, oh boy delve into the various caucuses in the DNC and you'll realize that the GOP is pretty ideologically aligned by comparison. The difference is that they're way better at hiding it. So if they decide on a convention fight, it's gonna get ugly.
To answer your question, if they do it "right" and unify around Harris, she's got a 60% chance of beating Trump I think. While she's deeply unpopular, most voters still aren't super familiar with her; so there's a huge opportunity to "reintroduce" her. Also, she'll get to play the race and gender card.
If they fight it out and we end up with a Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzler, or X; it's back to 50/50 for President, but I think they'll suffer down ballot a lot from the image of a party in chaos.
Again, this is all because Trump is a terrible candidate in his own right. If the GOP has nominated literally anyone else, we'd be looking at a 1984 style landslide for them right now.